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Machinery manufacturing: mechanical tracking weekly report of the fifteenth phase in 2013

2016/7/12      view:

        Main contents: recent major point of view, a week at major policies and news, machinery industry, the performance of the secondary market, capital, the main raw material prices, domestic export growth, PMI index, China's manufacturing PMI index, mechanical products monthly import and export, mechanical 12 architectural industry import and export, the recent mechanical industry listed companies limit the sale of shares lifted case.


        General idea: follow-up attention to rail transportation equipment, oil and gas drilling equipment, intelligent equipment and aerospace equipment, a four plate investment opportunities.


        2013 1 quarter revenue and earnings of Listed Companies in the machinery industry fell more than in 2012 to accelerate. Poor demand caused by mechanical mainstream listed companies continue to decline in the asset status of the continuation of the situation. Sub industry, aerospace equipment, oil drilling equipment industry of the listed company's profitability and assets are good, display industry boom in the more optimistic state. And now is not the industry focus on the refrigeration equipment and metallurgical heavy manufacturing 12 in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 13 years of profitability, revenue growth, property and other are signs of a slight improvement. The latter may be appropriate attention. Under the weak economy, in 2013 1-4 month machinery industry but outperformed the market 5.47%, has reflected the market expectations of weak economic recovery.


        In 2013 March machinery industry power consumption (displays the current operating conditions) fell 14.74%, be a month since 2008 industry each month of negative growth in electricity consumption is the most serious, serious than the previous financial crisis in February 2009 the highest decline 12.23% more, showing current operating conditions are poor. Machinery industry power consumption in the manufacturing industry in the downstream level. March four high energy consuming manufacturing consumption year on year growth of 0.55%, rather than on the manufacturing of electricity consumption fell 12.17% in high energy consumption, shows in China under the economic situation is poor, industrial transformation does not appear comprehensive to high-end development of the situation.


        Rail transportation equipment: in the high railway Netcom Car + freight channel construction + operating system + city rail project release multiple promotion, is expected to experience the system reform of the Ministry of Railways to the travails of the China Railway Corporation, reflect the freight market reform and the new railway network effect with, at present China's high-speed rail passenger turnover volume year-on-year growth in more than 40%. Once the railway corporation has completed the restructuring of the tender, will usher in the second business cycle of vehicle demand. Key recommendation: China north car (underestimate the value of high safety factor), the northern venture (both safety and performance growth), permanent expensive appliances (flexible, EMU tender impact on the performance of a huge).


        Oil and gas drilling and LNG equipment: onshore and offshore oil and gas drilling boom continues to rise, continue to be optimistic about the oil and gas drilling and production equipment industry and natural gas industry chain. Besides Jerry shares, rich Reiter installed, HBP and Jeddah science and technology as the industry's second-line varieties of concern; pass the source of oil in horizontal well drilling and downhole operation to develop their business, after the resumption of suggestions focus. Also recommended that the bearing is closely related to attention and offshore oil drilling scene of offshore oil engineering, high in China's petroleum strategy and international maritime oil and gas drilling boom together to support the company's high performance growth, directed the issuance of refinancing needs make the interests of the company and investors have strong consistency. CNOOC engineering in the 12th Five Year Plan period of high quantity is expected to will continue until the end of 2014, and will be in 45 planning spiral.


        Intelligent alternative to artificial equipment: with China's population dividend gradually disappear, the industry boom cycle long, huge space, currently in the import period, the proposed focus on robotics, Bo real shares.

        Military: the international situation is in a state of tension, China's military spending increase larger space, in the general downturn in the economic environment, for the remainder of 13 years in the military industry worth as an event driven opportunities continue to pay attention to. Due to deregulation, 3-4 line supporting products for non military enterprises to open, will give the company a strong technical ability to bring opportunities.


        Construction machinery: April excavator sales and boot situation shows a weak recovery. The sales of 16257 units, up 5.77% mom -25.3%, for the first time since May 11 positive year-on-year. Sales structure of the continuation of last month, the best small dig, dig also appeared on the rise: small, medium and large dig accounted for 47%, respectively, 45%, 8%; sales were 20%, 10%, -44%. Market Research Trinity excavator April starting rate of 49.6%, average daily working hours 6.54, boot rate * daily working hours 3.24, 2-5% year on year, fell continued to narrow, 6% mom, the continuation of the March decline narrowed trend. More sensitive excavator start situation continued to moderate to good, but the construction machinery sales data and boot rate decline narrowed and not on behalf of the industry's profits will soon turn for the better.


        Risk warning: economic recovery and industrial sector production capacity to digest the needs of the process; related industries to support the policy or not up to expectations; industry competition.